Confident growth in an age of embedded risk
HLB Survey of Business Leaders 2026 - Retail sector outlook
Confident growth in a crowded risk landscape
The global retail sector in 2026 is being defined by a paradox. Risk is prevalent, complex, and multi-layered, but confidence is high. According to the 2026 HLB Survey of Business Leaders, retail businesses are not retreating in the face of continued volatility. Rather, they are investing, restructuring, and repositioning for growth.
Retailers are no longer reacting to crisis conditions; they are operating in what has become a permanently volatile environment, and are building strategies to match that continued uncertainty. However, execution capability, particularly around technology, cybersecurity, and talent will determine whether that confidence translates into sustainable performance.
Retail leaders are entering the next 12 months with strong growth conviction. Almost nine in ten are confident about revenue growth, with 44% very confident, 44% somewhat confident, and only 13% not confident. More than half expect global economic growth to increase over the next year, compared with just 16% who anticipate a decline.
Sector risks
of retail leaders show levels of concern towards both inflation and cybersecurity issues.
This optimism sits alongside an unusually dense risk agenda. Roughly three out of four retail leaders report being concerned or very concerned about economic uncertainty. Customer and regulatory shifts further compound the landscape. Changing consumer behaviour concerns 63% of leaders, while regulatory change, tax risk, disruptive technologies, and environmental or climate risks all fall around the 60% concern range.
The most telling shift is what has moved down the agenda. Pandemic risk has receded, with 27% not concerned and only 43% concerned or very concerned. The crisis reflex of recent years is giving way to a more structural view of resilience.
The message is clear: retail business leaders are not dismissing risk, but are working to normalise it. Volatility is now the operating backdrop rather than an exceptional event. The growth stance is therefore not naïve optimism, but a deliberate choice to invest despite uncertainty.
Long-horizon strategy governed by adaptive control
For retail businesses, planning cycles are predominantly multi-year, with 39% operating on a one-to-two year horizon and 32% on three-to-four years. Only 13% of respondents said they plan primarily over six to 12 months and 10% use continuous or ongoing planning. Notably, no respondents report having no formal planning process - retail is a sector that values structured strategy.
At the same time, retailers are adapting their planning toolkit. Half use adaptive planning techniques, making it the most common strategic approach, while traditional comprehensive long-term planning remains strong at 44%. This hybrid response blends classic multi-year strategy with iterative adjustment.
Decision-making, however, remains centralised. Forty percent of those surveyed rely on executive leadership to make centralised decisions. It’s clear that in volatile conditions, many retailers default to top-down calls.
Meanwhile, analytical techniques are present within the sector, but not universal. Options analysis is used by 39%, scenario planning by 34%, and decision frameworks or matrices by 26%. These figures suggest there’s room in the sector to deepen decision science capability.
Execution discipline presents a more visible gap. Only 29% implement firm deadlines and just 19% stress-test strategies. While strategic intent is robust, contingency testing and accountability mechanisms appear less embedded.
For retail leaders, the implication is significant: the sophistication of strategy is rising, but without thorough stress-testing and execution governance, plans risk underperforming when market conditions shift quickly. Embedding scenario modelling, structured decision frameworks, and disciplined review cycles will be critical to translating intent into measurable results.
The growth formula: customer, people, and technology
of leaders plan to invest in their people in the year ahead, alongside an increased customer focus.
Leaders told us that both cost and innovation are dual priorities. Forty-four percent plan to both reduce costs or launch new products or services - retailers are simultaneously protecting margins and seeking top-line growth.
Strategic repositioning is also underway. Thirty-nine percent are reviewing strategy and 39% are investing in new markets or segments. Meanwhile, ecosystem interactions are seemingly selective rather than universal, with 29% of respondents planning joint ventures or alliances and 24% collaborating with entrepreneurs.
Importantly, workforce reduction is not the default lever for those surveyed. Only 18% plan headcount reductions and 16% outsourcing, while 15% consider divesting and 10% M&A. The prevailing mindset is transformation, not contraction.
Underpinning this growth approach is a clear convergence: digital and artificial intelligence (AI) capability, empowered employees, and deep customer understanding are seen as the core engines of competitive advantage.
AI and data: advancing the customer agenda
Customer focus is not rhetorical. It is operational. In the last 12 months, 72% of retail leaders have prioritised customer data analytics, segmentation, and personalisation, making it the dominant customer initiative. Fifty-six percent emphasise customer-driven product or service innovation and 54% are aligning culture and training to better serve customers. Half run structured customer feedback programmes and 48% have redesigned around stages of the customer journey.
AI use cases
of firms in the retail sector report already using AI for their customer analytics, with customer service a close second at 34%.
The data shows that AI is already embedded in customer-facing areas. Retailers are not experimenting with technology at the margins. They are operationalising AI across front-end and back-office functions. Yet capability strain is visible. Twenty-three percent cite digital and AI capabilities as a weakness, 23% talent acquisition, and 21% workforce effectiveness.
The implication is that AI adoption is progressing faster in customer and revenue functions than in workforce enablement. This asymmetry may limit scale and sustainability. Retailers investing heavily in customer analytics must ensure that workforce skills, change management and digital fluency evolve in parallel.
The capability gap: the true pivot point
Perhaps the most important insight from the data lies in the intersection between ambition and self-identified weakness.
Cybersecurity and cost management are the most cited weaknesses at 34% each, followed by operational effectiveness at 29%, and risk management at 27%. These are core capabilities, not peripheral concerns. Customer-data trust is a particular pressure point. Twenty-nine percent say they need external support to enhance cyber and data security, and 21% to secure customer data specifically.
At the same time, 44% will need external support for automated and AI-powered decision-making, and 32% for business intelligence and digital transformation.
This signals a strong demand for external expertise. However, external support for customer-centric capabilities appears underweighted. Only 16% seek help for customer experience enhancement and 15% for customer analytics and personalisation, despite these being top strategic priorities.
Conclusion: engineering advantage in a volatile age
Retail in 2026 is neither defensive nor complacent. The sector is confident, structured, and increasingly data-driven. Eighty-eight percent of leaders are confident in revenue growth and 55% expect global economic expansion. At the same time, they are navigating a dense and persistent risk landscape, with macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technological concerns firmly embedded.
The sector’s growth thesis is clear: customer focus, empowered people, and AI-enabled efficiency. However, execution discipline and core capability gaps represent defining challenges for most retail businesses.
The retailers that succeed over the next cycle will be those that move beyond strategic intent and systematically strengthen cyber security, cost management, operational effectiveness, and digital talent. They will increasingly need to blend adaptive planning with rigorous stress-testing and governance.
In an environment where volatility is the norm, competitive advantage will not come from predicting risk - it will come from building the organisational capability to perform through it.
Our HLB firms stand ready to support retail businesses on this journey, providing the advisory insight, assurance rigour, and tax and accounting expertise required to transform ambition into sustainable performance.
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