Transformation in a complex risk landscape
HLB Survey of Business Leaders 2026 - Technology sector outlook
Confidence returns, complexity remains
The technology sector has entered 2026 with renewed confidence. After several years defined by inflationary pressure, capital constraints, and rapid shifts in customer demand, technology leaders are now looking ahead with a stronger sense of momentum. Recent data from the HLB Survey of Business Leaders 2026 shows that technology businesses are among the most optimistic across all sectors about revenue growth and the broader economic outlook.
That optimism, however, is not rooted in complacency. Technology leaders continue to operate in one of the most complex risk environments of any sector. Cyber threats, geopolitical tension, talent shortages, regulatory pressure, and accelerating climate expectations all sit alongside the opportunities created by artificial intelligence (AI), data, and digital business models. The result is a sector that feels bullish but cautious, ambitious but disciplined.
Strategic thinking
Drawing on insights from 172 technology leaders around the world, this article explores how the sector is navigating that paradox. It examines four themes that are shaping the year ahead: the evolving risk landscape and confidence levels, changes in strategic planning, the operational response through agility and AI, and the role of customer-led strategies in unlocking sustainable growth.
Technology leaders are bullish on growth, but operating in a dense risk environment
Technology leaders enter 2026 with strong confidence in their own growth prospects. An overwhelming 95% of respondents express confidence in revenue growth over the next 12 months, with 57% feeling very confident and a further 38% somewhat confident. Only a small minority report any lack of confidence. This positions technology as one of the most optimistic sectors in our global survey.
That level of confidence is reinforced by a marked improvement in macroeconomic sentiment. Sixty-five percent of technology leaders expect global economic growth to increase over the coming year. This represents a sharp rebound from 40% in 2023 and 51% in 2024. Just nine percent expect global growth to decline. For a sector closely tied to business investment, consumer demand, and innovation cycles, this shift matters.
However, the technology sector’s optimism is tempered by a broad and persistent risk profile. Unlike previous cycles where one or two dominant threats impacted decision-making, technology leaders now face a wider field of risk. Across 18 risk categories put to respondents, most answered firmly in the “concerned” or “very concerned” bands. This indicates that risk is not concentrated, but layered.
Cybersecurity stands out as a top operational concern, reflecting both the sector’s digital exposure and its role as a custodian of client and customer data. Inflation and economic uncertainty also continue to weigh on margins and investment decisions, particularly for firms balancing growth with cost discipline. Trade disruption and rising resource costs are adding further complexity to global operating models, especially for firms with distributed development teams or hardware dependencies.
Strategic risks are equally prominent. Disruptive technologies, including AI itself, present both opportunities and threats. Leaders recognise that failing to adopt new technologies quickly enough can be as damaging as adopting them without sufficient governance. Likewise, access to talent remains a persistent challenge for businesses, particularly in specialist digital, AI, and cybersecurity roles. Environmental and climate risks are also gaining more prominence, as customers, regulators, and investors demand clearer action and accountability.
The result is a clear paradox. Technology leaders are confident in growth but acutely aware that execution is taking place in an environment of compounding risks. Success in 2026 will depend less on bold bets alone and more on the ability to balance optimism with vigilance.
Technology firms are shifting to medium-term, structured planning with adaptive overlays
Strategic planning in the technology sector is becoming more structured and more professionalised, with leaders viewing a structured strategy as essential for aligning investment, talent, and innovation priorities. The data suggests a move away from both short-term reactive decision-making and rigid, long-range forecasting, towards a balanced medium-term approach.
of leaders operate on a one- to two-year planning cycle, while 27% plan three to four years ahead.
Most technology firms now plan within a one- to four-year time horizon. This reflects a pragmatic recognition that although long-term vision matters, the pace of change limits the usefulness of detailed future plans. At the same time, planning techniques are evolving.
These approaches allow leaders to adjust direction as conditions change, without abandoning strategic intent. More than any other sector, technology businesses are prioritising nimbleness and agility. However, traditional elements remain important - 44% continue to rely on comprehensive long-term planning, and the same proportion emphasise centralised executive decision-making.
This blend of adaptability and structure reflects the realities of running technology businesses at scale - agile execution requires a stable strategic core. Where the data points to opportunity is in the deeper use of decision quality tools. Options analysis and seeking diverse perspectives are each used by 40% of leaders, while scenario planning is done by 33%. Decision frameworks and stress testing sit at 28%.
These figures suggest that while the foundations of disciplined strategy are in place, many technology firms have room to strengthen how they test assumptions, explore alternatives, and prepare for downside scenarios. In a dense risk environment, the quality of decisions matters as much as the speed at which they are made.
For technology leaders, the message is clear. Strategy is no longer an annual exercise or a reactive response to disruption. It is becoming a continuous capability, grounded in structure but flexible enough to adapt as conditions change.
Transformation levers centre on technology adoption, efficiency, and AI-enabled operations
Technology firms are responding to volatility with decisive action. The growth agenda for 2026 is firmly technology-led, with a strong emphasis on efficiency and AI-enabled operations.
Sixty-three percent of technology leaders plan to adopt new technology as a primary growth action over the next year. This is closely followed by improving operational efficiency at 56%. Nearly half, 48%, will review their strategy, while 42% plan to launch new products or services. These priorities underscore a sector that sees reinvention as continuous rather than periodic.
At the same time, cost management and portfolio moves are playing a supporting role. Forty-one percent plan to reduce costs, while 40% will invest in new markets or segments; the same proportion will invest in people. Notably, only 17% plan to reduce headcount and just 15% intend to divest or exit markets. This suggests that most technology leaders are seeking to optimise and grow rather than retrench
AI use cases
of technology firms use AI in customer analytics, with 38% in customer service and process automation
It’s no surprise that AI sits at the centre of this transformation. AI is already embedded across much of the technology value chain.
The more recent change is the role AI plays in management and decision-making. More than a quarter of technology leaders now use AI in performance management systems, while 24% apply it to forecasting and strategic planning. A further 23% deploy AI in risk management. This marks a shift from experimentation towards operational integration, where AI supports not just execution but informs leadership decisions.
Customer focus is data driven, but capability gaps risk slowing personalisation and experience gains
Customer-led growth is a central pillar of technology leaders’ strategies in 2026. Just over half of technology leaders, 51%, cite focusing on customers as a key growth action. This places customer focus alongside technology adoption and efficiency as a core strategic priority.
Over the past 12 months, customer initiatives have been heavily analytics-led. Seventy percent of respondents prioritised customer data analytics, segmentation, and personalisation. Sixty-seven percent focused on customer-driven product and service innovation. These investments reflect a belief that growth will come from deeper insight into customer needs and more tailored offerings.
However, the data also reveals uneven maturity. While 59% of respondents invested in customer feedback programmes, fewer focused on the organisational and cultural foundations of customer centricity. Only 47% prioritised culture and training for employees, and just 38% invested in organisational redesign around the customer journey. This imbalance risks limiting the impact of data and technology investments, and AI is reinforcing this dynamic. Technology firms are using AI extensively in customer analytics and service, as well as in sales, marketing, and content generation. These tools are enhancing insight and engagement, but they also raise expectations. Customers increasingly expect seamless, personalised, and consistent experiences across channels.
Despite strong levels of ambition, capability gaps persist. Twelve percent of technology leaders identify customer acumen as a weakness, and a further 12% report the need to strengthen customer analytics and personalisation capabilities through external support. Demand for assistance spans the customer lifecycle, from experience enhancement at 24% to customer service training and co-creation programmes at 15% each.
The implication is clear: data and AI can enable customer-led growth, but they are not sufficient on their own. Without the right skills, culture, and operating models, technology firms risk falling short of the experiences their customers now expect.
Technology leaders at a pivot point in 2026
For technology leaders, optimism around future revenue growth and the global economy is strong, and investment in AI, new technologies, and operational efficiency remains high. At the same time, the risk environment is broad and persistent, spanning cybersecurity, economic volatility, talent, regulation, and climate considerations.
This year’s survey data reveals that the technology sector is at a distinct pivot point. Transformation is continuous, not intermittent, and strategies are becoming sharper through medium-term planning and adaptive approaches. However, execution risk looms large, and capability gaps in AI, cybersecurity, cost management, and customer centricity could slow progress if not addressed.
External ecosystems matter more than ever. Many technology firms are looking beyond their own walls for support in AI-enabled decision-making, cyber resilience, analytics, and customer experience. Growth in 2026 is likely to be co-created, not built in isolation.
For technology leaders, the challenge is to turn confidence and experimentation into disciplined, customer-focused, and risk-aware transformation. For HLB firms, this creates a clear opportunity to support clients with integrated advisory, audit and assurance, tax, and accounting services that help translate ambition into sustainable performance in volatile times.
Related research
